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Introduction - Interpret Market Trends and Development Assignment
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Analysis and Monitoring of Statistical Data by Seaside Caravan Parks and its Utilisation
As per the given information near the Wollongong seaside caravan park, one another competitor has opened a park. This thing may affect the performance of cited venture because may customer can switch their entertainment zone. To overcome the negative impact of this competition, I have to effectively monitor and analyses the statistical data of company and performance. By this monitoring , as a marketing manager, I can address that what type of strategies are followed by rival and according to these strategies or tactics I can manage my company's performance. On the other hand, by effective monitoring and analysing, I can develop strategic action to develop my company performance so as seaside caravan park can attract a large number of customer.
Forecasting techniques
Calculation of Number of Drive-in Visitors in 2013 and 2014 by Least-Square Method
LSQ is a statistical method that is used to forecast future for a time-series data (Hatami, Sheikholeslami and Ganji, 2014).
With the stated scenario, 2012's drive in figures are not considered useful indicator for the demand forecasting for the future period. The reason behind this is it was only the number who could be accommodated during the busy schedule of Caravan Park as it was exactly equal to hit the total capacity of 400. As at this level, total of existing booking of 330 plus drive-in customers to 70 comes to 400. Thus, it becomes clear that 70 is not an accurate number, it is just the maximum number of drive in visitors that can be accommodated by Caravan park to fully utilize their park capacity. Therefore, here, forecasting techniques through LSQ has been applied using years from 2009 to 2011, as follows:
|
Year (X) |
X |
Y |
XY |
X^2 |
Yc |
Y-YC |
|||||
|
2009 |
1 |
65 |
65 |
1 |
65 |
0 |
|||||
|
2010 |
2 |
70 |
140 |
4 |
70 |
0 |
|||||
|
2011 |
3 |
76 |
228 |
9 |
76 |
0 Total |
6 |
211 |
433 |
14 |
211 |
|
Number of items |
3 |
3 Average |
2 |
70.3333333 |
Least Square Equation
Yc = a + bx
a∑y = na + b∑X
b∑xy = a∑x + b∑X^2
Equation 1
211 = 3a + 6b
Equation 2
433 = 6a + 14b
Eq 1 *4
844 = 12a + 24b
Eq. 2*2
866 = 12a + 28b
Value of b
22 = 4b
22/4 = b
5.5 = b
Equation 1
211 = 3a + 6b
Putting b value
211 = 3a + 6(5.5)
211 = 3a + 33
211 -33 =3a
178 = 3a
178/3 =a
59.33 = a
Least square equation
Yc = 59.33 + 5.5x
2012
59.33 + 5.5(4) = 81
2013
59.33 + 5.5 (5) = 87
2014
59.33 + 5.5 (6) = 92
On the basis of the findings, it can be said that in the upcoming three years, 2012, 2013 and 2014, total bookings of drive-in-visitors is estimated to 81, 87 & 92respectively. The data founded that result are incorrect in the year 2012 as it was given to 70 whilst accurate number of drive-in-consumers have been estimated to 81..
In accordance with the results, it is founded that in the year 2012, total booking (existing plus drive-in customers) of 330 + 81 = 411 which is already out of space as it is above the capacity of the park that is founded 400. As a reason, Caravan Park will be require to improve their existing capacity so as to accommodate visitors, therefore, in the future years, park capacity got maximized to 450.
(a) Other Forecasting Techniques for Seaside Caravan Park
- Drift methods
- Average methods
- Qualitative v/s quantitative methods
- Time series methods
(b) Selection of Two Forecasting Technique
Average method- In this method, the prediction of all future value are equal to the mean of the past data. This approach can be used with any data where past data is available. By use of this technique, a company can easily identify and analyses the future value. I can easily identify existing and emerging market trends at seaside caravan parks by the prediction of all future value add to the mean of past data (Lee and Peters, 2015). Under the average cost method it is assumed that the cost of inventory is based on the average cost of the goods available for sale during the period. The average cost is computed by dividing the total cost of the goods available for sale by the total unit available for the sale. On the basis of finding in the above calculation it has been founded that in 2013 and 2014, total bookings of drive-in-visitors is estimated to 81, 87 and 92. So it can be said that Seaside Caravan Parks booking of families and booking from couples may increased as compare to the past year. As per the calculation of this above table it has founded that in the year 2012 total booking (existing plus drive in customer) of 330+81=411.According to this data it can forcasted that cited venture requires to omprove its existing condition of business so as it can atatrct the large number of customer in the future.
Qualitative v/s quantitative method- it is subjective, based on the opinion and judgment of consumers, experts. They are usually applied to the intermediate or long-range decision. This method is used to forecast future data as a function of past data. They are appropriate to use when past numerical data is available (Levine, Krehbiel and Berenson, 2013).Qualitative research method is used to uncover trend in thought and opinion and dive deeper into the problem. It is typically descriptive data and as such is harder to analyze than quantitative data.
Least square method- The method of least square is standard approach in regression analysis to the approximate solution of over determined systems. With assistance of this lest square method, the data can forecast of the Caravan park of the year 2012, 2013 and 2014.As per the calculation of this method, it has been founded that the total booking of drive in visitor is estimated to 81, 87 and 92 respectively. In accordance with the results, it is founded that in the year 2012, total booking (existing plus drive-in customers) of 330 + 81 = 411 which is already out of space as it is above the capacity of the park that is founded 400. As per this analysis of the park with help of least square method, company requires to increase its accommodation and other facilities to accommodate the customers in the 2013.
Communicating to Small Businesses like Seaside Caravan Park
The importance of forecasting- In the context of the seaside caravan park, forecasting is very beneficial because by this company can easily assess the future needs to develop its business. It assists in planning the all business operation which helps in increase the profitability. Further, forecasting assist to the manager to take correct action or take decision related to business activities in future as well as present time.
How it affects their organization- Forecasting affect the seaside caravan park activities and function because by this forecasting company takes future actions and decision. Thus, according to forecasting, the firm have to arrange the required resources such as financial, human resources, physical, etc. On the other hand, to implement forecast action and decision, seaside caravan park to prepare a systematic planning and reporting for all necessary requirement future (Nguyen, Charity and Robson, 2016). It can be said that forecasting affect business in a positive manner because by this various negative action and losses can remove from the organization.
Report on Market Data-It is important to ensure that your audience can easily understand the results of your analysis and see the significance. Achieving this objective in any form of presentation will require effective use of visuals and clear explanation of data to make your message clear.
Preparation and Plotting Data through Graph
The graphical presentation is also a widely used technique so as to visualize and present data more effectively and efficiently. It provides a quick idea to the business analysts about the performance of the organization (Freed, Bergquist and Jones, 2014). Referring the stated scenario, the graph has been presenting here by comprising a set of options that are park capacity, existing booking, booking by drive-in visitors, families, couples and individuals as well, see below:
Column graph:
|
Existing booking |
Drive-in customers |
|
|
2009 |
300 |
65 |
|
2010 |
310 |
70 |
|
2011 |
320 |
76 |
|
2012 |
330 |
81(computed through LSQ) |
|
Families |
Couples |
Individuals |
|
|
2009 |
25 |
38 |
2 |
|
2010 |
25 |
42 |
3 |
|
2011 |
26 |
45 |
5 |
|
Total bookings |
Park capacity |
|
|
2009 |
365 |
400 |
|
2010 |
380 |
400 |
|
2011 |
396 |
400 |
|
2012 |
330+81 (LSQ estimated) = 411 |
400 |
Two graphical visualising for drive-in visitors and its forecasting for 2013 and 2014
The trend line is a statistical technique that can be used by Seaside Caravan Parks to forecast the number of drive-in-visitors in the future period (Haughton and Kelly, 2015). This method analyses the trends of historical occurrence and bookings to predict potential movement in the forthcoming period, prepared below:
|
Year (X) |
X |
Y |
XY |
X^2 |
Yc |
Y-YC |
|
2009 |
1 |
65 |
65 |
1 |
65 |
0 |
|
2010 |
2 |
70 |
140 |
4 |
70 |
0 |
|
2011 |
3 |
76 |
228 |
9 |
76 |
0 |
|
Total |
6 |
211 |
433 |
14 |
211 |
|
|
Number of items |
3 |
3 |
||||
|
Average |
2 |
70.3333333 |
|
Equation 1 |
211 = 3a + 6b |
|
Equation 2 |
433 = 6a + 14b |
|
Eq 1 *4 |
844 = 12a + 24b |
|
Eq. 2*2 |
866 = 12a + 28b |
|
Value of b |
22 = 4b |
|
22/4 = b |
|
|
5.5 = b |
|
|
Equation 1 |
211 = 3a + 6b |
|
Putting b value |
211 = 3a + 6(5.5) |
|
211 = 3a + 33 |
|
|
211 -33 =3a |
|
|
178 = 3a |
|
|
178/3 =a |
|
|
59.33 = a |
|
|
Least square equation |
Yc = 59.33 + 5.5x |
|
2012 |
59.33 + 5.5(4) = 81 |
|
2013 |
59.33 + 5.5 (5) = 87 |
|
2014 |
59.33 + 5.5 (6) = 92 |
|
2015 |
59.33 + 5.5 (7) = 98 |
Analyze and Interpret Findings
As per the presented graph, by Seaside Caravan Parks's executives and directors can be reported that park's capacity remains constant to 400 until the year 2012. After that, in the upcoming year, business took several decisions to enhance their total capacity to 450. However, existing booking shows a constant increase as every year; it has been increased by 10. However, on the other side; after finding the result of least square method, it is founded that in 2012, drive in booking has been forecasted to 81 that was comparatively greater than that of year 2011. Henceforth, it is clear that actual number of drive in customers is 81 instead of 70. Looking to the graph, it is founded that in the year 2012, total booking (existing plus drive-in customers) of 330 + 81 = 411 which is already out of space as it is above the capacity of the park that is founded 400. Therefore, in the upcoming year, Jane and John decided to expand their total capacity & reached to 450. In the year 2013, 2014 & 2015, drive in visitors booking had been expected to 87, 92 & 97 respectively.
Prediction of existing booking in 2013, 2014 & 2015 using LSQ
|
Year (X) |
X |
Y |
XY |
X^2 |
Yc |
Y-Yc |
|
2009 |
1 |
300 |
300 |
1 |
300 |
0 |
|
2010 |
2 |
310 |
620 |
4 |
310 |
0 |
|
2011 |
3 |
320 |
960 |
9 |
320 |
0 |
|
2012 |
4 |
330 |
1320 |
16 |
330 |
0 |
|
Total |
10 |
1260 |
3200 |
30 |
1260 |
|
|
Number of items |
4 |
4 |
||||
|
Average |
2.5 |
315 |
|
Equation 1 |
1260 = 4a + 10b |
|
Equation 2 |
3200 = 10a + 30b |
|
Eq 1 *3 |
3780 = 12a + 30b |
|
Eq. 2*2 |
3200 = 10a + 30b |
|
Value of a |
580 = 2a |
|
580/2 = a |
|
|
290 = a |
|
|
Equation 1 |
1260 = 4a + 10b |
|
Putting a value |
1260 = 4(290) +10b |
|
1260 -1160 = 10b |
|
|
100 = 10b |
|
|
100/10 = b |
|
|
10 = b |
|
|
Least square equation |
Yc = 290 + 10x |
|
2013 |
290 +(10*5) = 340 |
|
2014 |
300 + (10*5) = 350 |
|
2015 |
300 + (10*6) = 360 |
|
Year |
Existing booking |
Drive in visitors |
Total |
|
2013 |
340 |
87 |
427 |
|
2014 |
350 |
92 |
442 |
|
2015 |
360 |
98 |
458 |
Capacity and Booking Requirement
Looking to the results, it is seen that after 2012, Seaside Caravan park will be able to accommodate more visitors to 87 & 92 at an increased capacity of 450. However, after this, in the year 2015, existing booking will go up to 360 & drive in visitors will went to 98 at a total requirement of 458. At this level, park will not be able to accommodate all the visitors because its total capacity is comparatively lower to 450 only. Here, it arises the need to expand the capacity as it has been fully utilized and managers will be unable to serve all the consumer demand, therefore, supply needs to be increased at higher capacity.
Potential Problems and Corrective Actions
Potential Problems: In the future, the company may face issues and challenges due to declining family booking, couples bookings and individual booking. As a result, total revenue of the firm may be a decline, which in turn, net earnings may also decrease. Consequently, it will not be able to gain competitive advantages over the rivalries and defeated by key industry players (Jaggia and et.al., 2016).
Remedial Actions:To eliminate the potential challenges and threats, following corrective actions can be suggested mentioned below:
- Seaside Caravan Park needs to maximize its capacity in the future so as to serve all the consumer demand appropriately because as per the analysis, in 2015, demand will be 457 whereas park is capable to accommodate only 450 consumers. Park must be contracted with the parties to maximize their capacity, so that, exceeding consumer base can be properly accommodated and satisfied through rendering the best services.
- The company needs to adopt new marketing practices and promotional strategies such as online marketing, social media and others to generate more customer traffic. With the higher number of booking, it will be able to generate excessive turnover and higher net yield.
- Seaside Caravan Park Wollongong also need to frame new and innovative business strategies and plans to improve their quality of services so that, more visitors can be encouraged to book the park (Dancer, Morrison and Tarr, 2015). Moreover, standardisation of services and facilities offered by the park will be greatly helpful to gain higher consumer traffic and result in increased performance.
- Effective pricing mechanism can also be suggested, in which, Seaside Caravan Park Wollongong's managers must pay focus to charge an optimum and affordable prices for their delivering. As a result, a higher number of visitors, couples, families and others will be willing to book the park.
Action Plan for New Franchise
|
Activities |
Week1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
|
Identifying the warning signs and issues |
||||||||||
|
Developing a financial model |
||||||||||
|
Identify alternative solutions and its analysis |
||||||||||
|
Pointed out issues and problems |
||||||||||
|
Choose the best alternative to resolve the problem |
||||||||||
|
Implementation |
||||||||||
|
Continuous monitoring |
||||||||||
|
Measuring success |
||||||||||
|
Modifying and altering the plan |
||||||||||
|
Practical application |
List of Legislations, Code of Practice and Standards
Legislations
- Licensing of facilities
- Environmental Protection Act
- Land Act
- Residential Tenancy Act
- Coastal Management
- Equal opportunity
- Occupational health and safety
- Other regulations
Code of Practice and Standards
- Equal rights and opportunities
- Health and safety arrangements
- Honesty and integrity
- Professionalism
- Protection of consumer rights
- Others
- It will be monitored through verifying that regular business activities and operations are carrying in line with the industry norms, governmental laws, policies and regulations or not. With the help of this, remedial measures and corrective actions can be taken on the right time for the regulatory and legislative compliance.
Market Research Report
|
To, Jane and John Respected Franchise owners The Seaside Caravan Parks, Wollongong NSW 2017, January 12 Subjective: Analysis and interpretation of Seaside Caravan Parks performance and its forecasting Executive summary Seaside Caravan Parks is operating at six different locations throughout Australia and currently planning to expand internationally. The report aims at analyzing and examining the current park capacity and its existing booking performance for the last years ranging from 2009 to 2011. Moreover, the report will also gain the attention of the managers towards forecasting potential performance regarding booking by drive-in customers for the upcoming two years. Introduction The target of presenting this marketing report is to aware top-managers of Seaside Caravan Parks about its performance. Moreover, by this, they also will be informed about the potential movement in a number of bookings made by individual, couples, families, drive-in visitors and others. Along with this, the report will also present a summary of potential problems and difficulties what park can face in a future period. At the same time, various business strategies and decisions would be recommended to overcome the challenges and reach targets. Methodology To examine and analyze the market trends and performance of the park, various methodological tools and techniques have been applied such as trend line for estimation, the least square method for forecasting the number of bookings in the future period and many others. Moreover, data regarding park capacity and booking by families, couples, individuals and drive-in visitors have been presented graphically through constructing multiple of graphs. Results
Capacity and Booking Requirement Discussion and Analysis ·As per the presented graph, by Seaside Caravan Parks's executives and directors can be reported that park's capacity remains constant to 400 until the year 2012. After that, in the upcoming year, business took several decisions to enhance their total capacity to 450. ·However, existing booking shows a constant increase as every year; it has been increased by 10. On the basis of it, LSQ method also founded that in the upcoming years, 2013, 2014 &2015, total existing booking has been expected to grow at a rate of 10 visitors per year and reached to 330, 340, 350 & 360. ·On the other side, couple booking shows a growing trend till 2010 as it came to 26, whereas couple and individual booking went up to 45 & 5 visitors in the year 2011. ·Apart from this, estimation and prediction about drive-in-customers through least square method founded that, in future, more of the visitors will book the park as number of drive in bookings will go up to 81, 87, 92 & 98 respectively. ·As per the analysis, it is clear that actual number of drive in customers is 81 instead of 70. Looking to the graph, it is founded that in the year 2012, total booking (existing plus drive-in customers) of 330 + 81 = 411 which is already out of space as it is above the capacity of the park that is founded 400. Therefore, in the upcoming year, Jane and John decided to expand their total capacity & reached to 450. In the year 2013, 2014 & 2015, drive in visitors booking had been expected to 87, 92 & 98 respectively. ·In accordance with the results founded, it can be seen that in the year 2012, total aggregate demand will be 411 more than its overall capacity of 400, thus, can be termed as out of space. However, in the next years, it maximized its capacity to 450 but still, in the year 2015, total demand is expected o grow to 458 above than its capacity, therefore, park will be require to exceed its current capacity in order to serve all the demand appropriately. ·Thus, it can be said that on Christmas, more consumers will book the park to spend their vacations and entertain. Action Plan
Conclusion From the findings and analysis of the market data, it can be concluded that Seaside Caravan Park's existing bookings have been inclined over the years till 2011. Therefore, it becomes essential for the managers and top authority to make several business decisions to render more effective services to the clients to enhance overall booking. They have to introduce some creational and new facilities for the consumers so that higher number of visitors can be attracted results in long-run sustainability. Recommendations The company needs to adopt new marketing practices and promotional strategies such as online marketing, social media and others to generate more customer traffic. With the higher number of booking, it will be able to generate excessive turnover and higher net yield. ·Seaside Caravan Park needs to maximize its capacity in the future so as to serve all the consumer demand appropriately because as per the analysis, in 2015, demand will be 458 whereas park is capable to accommodate only 450 consumers. Park must be contracted with the parties to maximize their capacity, so that, exceeding consumer base can be properly accommodated and satisfied through rendering the best services. ·Seaside Caravan Park Wollongong also need to frame new and innovative business strategies and plans to improve their quality of services so that, more visitors can be encouraged to book the park. Moreover, standardisation of services and facilities offered by the park will be greatly helpful to gain higher consumer traffic and result in increased performance. ·Effective pricing mechanism can also be suggested, in which, Seaside Caravan Park Wollongong's managers must pay focus to charge an optimum and affordable prices for their delivering. As a result, a higher number of visitors, couples, families and others will be willing to book the park. ·Expansion strategy can be followed to conduct operations across different parts of the world, so that, higher visitors and the consumer can be served by the park and generate greater yield. Appendices · Licensing of facilities · Environmental Protection Act · Land Act · Residential Tenancy Act · Coastal Management · Equal opportunity · Occupational health and safety · Other regulations Code of Practice and Standards · Equal rights and opportunities · Health and safety arrangements · Honesty and integrity · Professionalism · Protection of consumer rights · Others Sincerely thanks The Seaside Caravan Park |
Conclusion
Above project report concluded that in the previous year, Seaside Caravan Park's capacity remains constant to 400, however, existing booking shows a rising trend of the constant increase of 10 every annum. However, in 2012, family, couples, drive-in visitors and individuals booking dropped down resulted in declined performance. The forecasting technique of least square method and trend line founded that, the number of bookings by drive-in visitors will go upward in the forwarding period on Christmas. While, to drive success, it has been advised to expand internationally, follow affordable pricing mechanism policy and render the best value to the guests.
Refrences
Books and Journals
Anderson, D.R., Sweeney, D.J. and Williams, T.A., 2014.Modern business statistics with Microsoft Excel. Nelson Education.
Lee, N. and Peters, M., 2015.Business Statistics Using EXCEL and SPSS. Sage.
Levine, D.M., Krehbiel, T.C. and Berenson, M.L., 2013.Business Statistics: International Edition. Pearson Higher Ed.
Nguyen, T.H., Charity, I. and Robson, A., 2016. Students' perceptions of computer-based learning environments, their attitude towards business statistics, and their academic achievement: implications from a UK university.Studies in Higher Education.41(4). pp.734-755.
Freed, N., Bergquist, T. and Jones, S., 2014.Understanding business statistics. John Wiley & Sons.
Haughton, J. and Kelly, A., 2015. Student Performance in an Introductory Business Statistics Course: Does Delivery Mode Matter?.Journal of Education for Business. 90(1). pp.31-43.
Jaggia, S. and et.al., 2016. Essentials of business statistics: communicating with numbers.John Wiley & Sons.
Dancer, D., Morrison, K. and Tarr, G., 2015. Measuring the effects of peer learning on students' academic achievement in first-year business statistics.Studies in Higher Education. 40(10). pp.1808-1828.
Hatami, M., Sheikholeslami, M. and Ganji, D.D., 2014. Laminar flow and heat transfer of nanofluid between contracting and rotating disks by least square method.Powder Technology. 253(12). pp.769-779.
Yu, P., Li, J. and Peng, H., 2014. A least square method for parameter estimation of rsc sub-codes of turbo codes.IEEE Communications Letters. 18(4). pp.644-647.
